APSRU PROJECT SUMMARY

PROJECT NO.

235

Project Title

Managing agricultural systems in a variable, non-stationary climate – Part I. Cropping systems

Project Leader

Holger Meinke

Organisation

APSRU - DPI

Funding Body

Land and Water Australia (commissioned project)

Administration Contact

Ms Vicki Battaglia

LRC - DPI

PO Box 2282

Toowoomba Tel: 07 4639 8886

Commencement Date

1 May 2003

Completion Date

31 December 2003

Research Proposal Summary

Trends in climate factors are already affecting agriculture and the way we manage these systems. These trends may or may not be expressions of anthropogenic climate change, however, they parallel expected changes and if climate change does occur then these trends are likely to continue into the future. In particular, minimum temperatures are increasing and rainfall is becoming more variable. The consequences are measurable and substantial. For example, the number of frost days and the dates of last frost across most of Australia have reduced considerably since the 1950s. This has, for instance, already changed variety choice and planting dates for wheat in areas with marginal frost risk. While less obvious than the temperature trends, there are also trends in rainfall with clear evidence of increasing rainfall variability and regionally-variable changes in both rainfall amounts and intensity. Such trends have implications for production and for NRM issues. Good risk managers can no longer afford to dismiss this evidence - appropriate risk management strategies need to take both variability and non-stationarity (ie. trends) into account in order to achieve the best possible outcomes. For part I of this project proposal we will undertake three major tasks: a) a detailed climatic analysis quantifying trends of key climate variables in the historical record b) documentation of the impact of these trends and possible responses for the grain industry to improve risk management and c) documentation of the impact of these trends and possible responses for the cropping industry. Similar studies are outlined in part II of this proposal along with an assessment of likely climate change projections on aspects of the grazing system.

Aims

Using a transect through the northern grain belt we will

· quantify historic trends in key climate factors such as frost, rainfall, rainfall intensity, VPD

· quantify the likely consequences of these trends on production, and NRM risk (erosion, deep drainage/leaching)

· discuss possible management responses to these issues and

· outline the approaches needed in order to assist industry in a well-managed transition towards more resilient agricultural systems that can accommodate such trends and variability in climate factors and hence cope with the possible effects of climate change

Potential Outcomes

Outputs

· detailed analysis of trends over the last 100 years in key climate variables such as minimum & maximum temperature, rainfall, rainfall intensity, VPD along a transect of the northern grainbelt

· quantification of the impact of these trends on wheat production and the implications for risk management

· quantification of NRM implications such as runoff, erosion and deep drainage and the implication for risk management

· preliminary assessment of the implications of climate trends for Exceptional Circumstances declarations

Outcomes

· understanding of the magnitude of non-stationarity of climate at key locations

· ability to develop better mitigation options for NRM consequences of climatic trends

· improved risk management of cropping systems through inclusion of climate trends in decision making providing pro-active capacity to adapt to future climate changes

· ability to better estimate magnitude and direction of impacts of future trends arising from climate change

· an approach and methodology that can be applied to cropping and grazing systems throughout Australia

Milestones

Budget

$ 40,000

Staff	% / year
Peter deVoil	40
Brendan Power	20
Holger Meinke	10

Resource Requirements

& Contributions

Prior Provision of IP &

Rights of Ownership

To be provided

Ownership, equity in and use of IP to be developed

To be provided

Rights of Publication

APSRU

Strategic Plan KRA Area

KRA 1

Relevance to Strategic Plan

To be provided