APSRU PROJECT SUMMARY NO. 20

Project Title:                Climate and Seasonal Forecasting Analyses

Project Supervisor:      R Stone, G Hammer, H Meinke

Funding Body:            Department of Primary Industries Core

Admin Contact:                        R Stone

Commencement Date: 01/07/93                                    Completion Date:         on-going

Aims:

·         To maintain close connection with developments on seasonal forecasting in Australia

·         To develop and maintain climate databases, and

·         To conduct climate analyses and consult on climate related issues with Department of Primary Industries Management.

Research Proposal Summary:

Dr Stone attends and participates in the monthly meeting on seasonal forecasting conducted by the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne. In addition, the feed into APSRU of information on ENSO and climate diagnostics from around the world is managed by Dr Stone. System to data base long term daily climate data are managed and enhanced in this project. Systems for automatic editing, infilling and synthesis of missing elements have been developed.

Climate analyses, such as maps of likely precipitation, probability analyses, are conducted in response to demand from policy makers.

Ongoing research activity is centred on improvement in seasonal forecasting systems appropriate to Queensland industry.

Potential Outcomes:

• Improved profits and risk management for farmers in north-east Australia through effective utilisation of climate forecast information.
• More accurate forecast information will provide better preparedness for drought and the better seasons.
• Farmers with much improved background strategic information to enable better forward planning.
• Improved input into scientific modelling of cereal and pasture growth.
• Improved collaborative effort between QDPI and the federal organisations such as Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre and National Climate Centre, CSIRO Divisions of Atmospheric Research and Oceanography, other State agricultural departments.
• Improved State policies and planning regarding drought preparedness, exceptional circumstances provision, rural planning, financing.

Project Publications: