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PROJECT NO. |
114 |
Project Title
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Seasonal climate forecasting to improve decision on
irrigation, yield forecasting and marketing |
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Project Leader
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Russell Muchow |
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Organisation |
??? / DPI |
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APSRU
Representative |
Graeme Hammer |
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Funding Body |
SRDC/LWRRDC |
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Administration
Contact |
Marshall Mackay Organisation ? Ph:
Fax: ?? |
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Commencement
Date |
1 July 1997 |
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Completion
Date |
30 June 2001 |
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Research
Proposal Summary |
Seasonal climate predictors such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at a given point in time offer the potential to predict future climate, say over the next 3, 6 or 12 months. Considerable international research on climatology is continually improving the skill and reliability of these future climate forecasts. Can the Australian Sugar Industry benefit from seasonal climate forecasting? For example, can the SOI in September be used to predict the rainfall over the next 6 months so as to guide decisions on irrigation management where water is limited ie should irrigation water be conserved until after Christmas for the "boom" period of growth or should water be used before Christmas to ensure good ratooning and rapid canopy development. Seasonal climate prediction could also benefit decision-making relating to yield forecasting, harvest scheduling and marketing. In considering marketing, not only could climate predictors be used in relation to Australian production but also in forecasting production in overseas countries. The important question however, is how useful are climate predictors in forecasting future rainfall and production for different locations in the Australian Sugar Industry, and of prediction production by our overseas competitors. Research has shown that seasonal climate forecasting has the potential to benefit risk management and decision-making in the dryland cereal industries of Australia, but no evaluation has been made for the Australian Sugar Industry. This project aims to evaluate and increase awareness of the value of seasonal climate forecasting for the Australian Sugar Industry. Applications related to irrigation management, yield forecasting and sugar marketing are considered in this proposal. The Australian sugar industry
operates in an uncertain and highly variable climatic environment. Skill in objectively derived seasonal
forecast systems offers the potential for better decision within this
environment. Climate forecasting can
assist on-farm decision on how to use scarce and/or costly water supplies,
which is of high strategic importance to future industry productivity. In addition, skill in climate forecasting
offers the potential to improve profitability at the mill scale and improve
international competitiveness at the industry scale. At the mill scale forward estimates of
crop size in each mill district are used to determine harvest season length
and crush start and finish dates.
Greater precision in these estimates will lead to improved
profitability through both enhance on-farm profitability and better utilisation
of milling capacity and industry assets.
At the Industry level, forecasts of sugar production both in Australia
and overseas-producing countries over a range of time frames are extremely
important in the marketing of sugar to ensure maximum export earnings. An industry workshop jointly funded by
SRDC and LWRRDC recently held in Mackay (2/8/96 R&D Workshop) on applying
seasonal climate forecasts in the sugar industry) established a clear
requirement for application of seasonal climate forecasts directly to the
sugar industry. At this workshop it
was demonstrated from APSRU/QDPI/CSIRO research that seasonal climate
forecasting already offers the potential to increase profit and reduce risk
to the cereal industry in north-east Australia. However, these systems have not yet been applied to the sugar
industry where similar improvements to profitability and risk management
would be highly likely. |
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Aims |
§ To
provide improved risk management and decision making capability for the
Australian Sugar Industry through effective integration of seasonal climate
forecasting with strategies for: o
The use of limited irrigation supplies o
Yield forecasting and harvest scheduling o
Sugar marketing § To
increase awareness of the value of seasonal climate forecasting for the sugar
industry and examine the feasibility of different mechanisms for delivery of
information that will enhance the capability of growers, millers and
marketeers to use seasonal forecasting in management decisions. |
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Potential
Outcomes |
§
Improved on-farm management by better use of scarce
water resources, increased water use efficiency and higher sugar production §
Improved scheduling of mill start and ending dates
leading to more effective use of resources eg. Milling capacity, haulage
equipment, shipping together with enhanced on-farm profitability §
Enhanced industry competitiveness through more
effective forward selling of sugar and improved efficiency of sugar shipments § Industry
awareness of the potential role of seasonal climate forecasting in improving
decision-making at different points in the industry value chain |
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Milestones |
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Budget |
1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 Total Salary 60986 63923 66821 69258 260988 Travel 8690 14758 14758 14758 52964 Operating 18000 17000 18000 14000 67000 Capital 9000 9000 TOTAL $ 96676 $ 95681 $ 99579 $ 98016 $ 389952 |
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Staff % /
year Roger Stone 10 Brian Keating 3 &
Contributions |
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Prior
Provision of IP & Rights of Ownership |
APSIM remains the sole property
of APSRU |
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Ownership,
equity in and use of IP to be developed |
D - 25/75 (DPI:CSIRO) |
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Rights
of Publication |
As per standard APSIM licence
agreement |
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Strategic
Plan Goal No. |
1 |
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Relevance
to Strategic Plan |
This
project addresses the following strategies: § work
with farmers and their advisers to explore options using simulation models,
simulation analyses, or derived tools §
work with clients to explore how they can
use/benefit from skills in climate forecasting |