Project Title: Can Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) Impact on cropping systems management?

Project Supervisor: Dr Holger Meinke

Funding Body: LWRRDC

Admin Contact: Ms Vicki Flanagan

Commencement Date: 01/10/98 Completion Date: 31/12/99

1. With the help of a cropping systems simulation environment, conduct a case study that examines the economic and environmental impact of DCV on a cropping system.
2. Demonstrate the impact that DCV information could have on this system if it was used operationally for decision making.
3. Provide recommendations how to augment current climate forecasting systems by quantifying relationships between low frequency ocean/atmosphere variations and rainfall variability over Australia.

The proposal will investigate and quantify the feasibility and value of including DCV into an operational, seasonal climate forecasting system. It will connect strongly with a range of associated projects. This will satisfy NCVP objectives (1) and (2) by markedly increasing the general understanding of climate variability and by highlighting opportunities for producers to strategically respond to an improved forecast by capitalising on both, the up-sides and down-sides of climate variability. Further it addresses objective (4) by demonstrating the long-term economic and environmental impact of using climate forecasting operationally.

Based on analysis of low frequency fluctuations of MSLP, SST and associated rainfall patterns and combined with the output from cropping systems simulations, the project will show the potential for improved seasonal forecasting systems. We will demonstrate how knowledge of DCV can contribute to (i) on-farm decision-making and (ii) aid policy makers in the decision process. It will develop methods that can be used to construct an operational forecasting system that accounts for annual and decadal climatic variation across the Australian cropping regions. This information will be presented at a workshop towards the end of the project as well as in the final report. Appropriate scientific publications will be prepared.