Project Title
Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts for More Effective Grain-Cotton Production System
Project Leader
Holger Meinke
Organisation
DPI
Funding Body
GRDC / CRDC
Administration Contact
Vicki Battaglia
Department of Primary Industries
Ph: 07 4639 8886 Fax: 07 4639 1427
Commencement Date
1 July 1999
Completion Date
30 June 2003
Research Proposal Summary
Climate variability creates major restrictions and imposes many risks on management of irrigated and dryland grain/cotton systems. It is time for growers and the entire grain/cotton industry to capitalise on advances made in cropping systems simulation and seasonal climate forecasting. Considerable pay-offs can be achieved by using forecasts to adjust cropping intensity and to select appropriate seasons for cotton in dryland grain-cotton systems. This provides opportunities to reduce financial risks while minimising soil erosion risks. Forecasts can also assist in maintaining high quality grain production in these systems to ensure price premiums are received. In irrigated cotton systems, there is potential to adjust irrigation strategy and area irrigated in response to a timely seasonal forecasts. Water use efficiency can be significantly improved in this way.
To date, no project has combined the potential offered by recent advances in cropping systems simulation and seasonal climate forecasting to forge potentially major advances in management of grain/cotton systems. This project will provide the interface and linkage between existing GRDC/CRDC/LWRRDC projects on simulation methodology with the groundbreaking work on long-range climate forecasting (Meinke, 'Optimising economic and environmental management of cropping systems'; Carberry and Bange, 'Delivering to industry the benefits of cropping systems models'; Meinke, Allan and Power, 'Can decadal climate variability impact on cropping systems management?; Stone, 'Evaluating the role of seasonal climate forecasting in tactical management of cropping systems in north-eastern Australia'; Abawi, Clarkson, Projects on forecasting streamflow).
Aims
The overall aim of the project is -
§ To significantly improve profitability and financial and resource risk management of dryland and irrigated grain/cotton systems through effective use of seasonal climate forecasts
This will be achieved by -
§ Using simulation modelling for major grain/cotton areas from Central Qld to Central NSW to determine management strategies in dryland and irrigated grain/cotton cropping systems that optimise the potential value of seasonal forecasting information, and
§ Interacting with a few, selected farmer-collaborators and key extension staff in the various regions to discuss potential management approaches and to 'road test' the results of the research.
Potential Outcomes
§ Demonstrate APSIM's simulation capability for dryland and irrigated grain/cotton systems using data from existing experiments (in collaboration with a partner project; Carberry and Bange)
§ Develop a suite of forecasting technologies suitable for this activity (eg. Long lead forecasts based on ocean patterns; link through Dr Meinke's LWRRDC project) and implement them in APSIM
§ Consult with researchers, advisers and growers to determine the key issues and constraints governing their management strategies. Based on this, develop the range of possible scenarios for subsequent evaluation
§ Conduct simulation analysis and optimisation of systems management taking account of financial and environmental risks (ling through Dr Meinke's GRDC project on cropping systems optimisation)
§ Consider practical relevance by maintaining on-going dialogue with clients (or their representatives) with capacity to act on results. This inlcudes close links with extension staff in CQ, on the Darling Downs and NSW.
Milestones
Budget
Resource Requirements & Contributions
Prior Provision of IP & Rights of Ownership
The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) – 100% equity of APSRU
Ownership, equity in and use of IP to be developed
B - APSRU, CRU, GRDC, CRDC 25% each
Rights of Publication
APSRU and CRU
Strategic Plan Goal No.
1, 2 & 4
Relevance to Strategic Plan
This project addresses the following strategies:
§ participate with farmers and advisers in action-learning activities utilising APSRU tools and information
§ work with farmers and their advisers to explore options using simulation models, simulation analyses, or derived tools
§ work with clients to explore how they can use/benefit from skills in climate forecasting
§ undertake simulation analyses to evaluate options for improving biophysical resource use efficiency in field crops and farming systems
§ undertake simulation analyses to evaluate options for improving system sustainability in relation to soil erosion, soil structural decline, and soil nutrient decline
§ develop and maintain appropriate databases for model inputs & model validation data
§ conduct, and collaborate in, field experimentation to improve performance of APSIM modules
§ develop understanding of key decisions, decision making processes, decision aid possibilities, and effectiveness of researcher/client interfaces