Project Title
Management responses to seasonal climate forecasts in mixed cropping systems of Southern India’s semi-arid tropics
Project Leader
Holger Meinke
Organisation
Department of Primary Industries
Funding Body
APN (Asia-Pacific Network)
Administration Contact
Vicki Battaglia
Department of Primary Industries
Ph: 07 4639 8886 Fax: 07 4639 8881
Commencement Date
1 April 2000
Completion Date
31 December 2005
Research Proposal Summary
APN support is sought to initiate a multidisciplinary program that can eventually be used to deliver an internationally recognised framework for effective delivery of seasonal climate forecasts in rainfed systems of the SAT. The APN component of this program is designed as a scoping study and constitutes a stepping stone towards a well-integrated research and delivery program that will address more comprehensively those aspects of climate risk that currently impede agricultural production in developing countries. Specifically, the project will
§ Document the current skill of predictability of relevant climate variables as a basis for understanding biological cropping system response to predictable components of climate,
§ Demonstrate via systems analysis how this predictability could alter management decisions to improve crop yields, stabilise livelihood, and enhanced sustainability of resources,
§ Identify partners and gain support for this initiative. The partners will include existing farmer networks, and the scientific linkages necessary for a successful end-to-end delivery program,
§ Design and gain additional funding for the comprehensive program.
Aims
§ Quantify and communicate the value of agricultural management responses to climate and seasonal forecast information in two regions of southern India (Tamil Nadu and Bangalore)
§ Develop appropriate methods to connect dynamic climate models and seasonal climate forecasts with agricultural systems analysis and decision making at the farm or policy level
Potential Outcomes
The project will deliver a better understanding and appreciation by the various stakeholders of the value of seasonal climate forecasting (scf) for agricultural management and will therefore considerably strengthen the international capacity to deliver scf effectively. To do this requires clear identification of key decision points within this farming system in terms of their (a) technical possibility and (b) socio-economic feasibility. The benefits for APSRU will be
§ enhanced capacity for risk management analysis applied to Australian cropping systems
§ connections to novel techniques for accessing and applying climate forecasts from GCM’s
§ maintaining global leadership in climate applications in agriculture
§ opportunity to attract significant international R&D funds for Queensland
Milestones
§ inaugural project meeting in April 2000 to finalise operational plan
§ project team meeting at TNAU (Meinke, Hansen, Selvaraju, Gadgil, Hammer, and others as identified at the inaugural planning meeting) to conduct and initiate a range of specific tasks (gathering of met and agronomic data, conduct of farm surveys etc)
§ follow-up visit by Hansen, Selvaraju and Gadgil to Toowoomba (2 weeks)
§ based on the data collected and tasks initiated at the meetings, conduct simulation studies that will highlight the leverage points in terms of systems management
§ present results to stakeholders (including farmers), obtain their feedback, and jointly formulate plans for their participation in a follow-on program
§ specify actions required to deliver overall program outcomes and gain support from a range of international research fund providers for this program
§ submit the follow-on proposal for the 3-4 year program to the appropriate funding body.
Budget
Resource Requirements & Contributions
Prior Provision of IP & Rights of Ownership
APSRU will retain the sole intellectual property rights to APSIM
Ownership, equity in and use of IP to be developed
B - 50:50
Rights of Publication
Joint
Strategic Plan Goal No.
1 & 4
Relevance to Strategic Plan
§ participate with farmers and advisers in action-learning activities utilising APSRU tools and information.
§ work with farmers and their advisers to explore options using simulation models, simulation analyses, or derived tools
§ work with clients to explore how they can use/benefit from skills in climate forecasting develop appropriate tools for decision analysis from simulation analysis of farming and farming system options
§ develop appropriate tools for decision analysis from simulation analysis of farming and farming system options
§ develop and enhance a relevant climate forecasting capability